China's Commercial Aerospace

The next Trillion-Dollar Opportunity

China's Commercial Aerospace
Commercial aerospace has reached an inflection point: breakthrough technology is now enabling strategic resource allocation at unprecedented scale.

Orbital slots operate on “first-come, first-served.” China just filed for 203,000 satellite positions. SpaceX’s anticipated 2026 IPO at $1.5 trillion will catalyze global momentum.

The fundamental shift:
→ Launch costs: 90%+ reduction via reusable rockets
→ Rocket launches: 4x increase by 2030
→ Satellite deployments: 16x increase

This represents a transition from niche technology to large-scale industrialization. China’s 2025 reusable trials mark entry into the critical phase.

SpaceX validated the economics: 23x launch frequency increase post-reusability.

Investment concentrates in five high-barrier segments (35%+ gross margins, concentrated market structures):
• Additive manufacturing: 80% faster rocket production cycles
• Satellite tracking & command systems: 90% market concentration
• High-performance thermal materials: Essential for extreme environments
• T/R modules & chips: Core satellite communication components
• Space photovoltaic equipment: Benefiting from space computing trends

Please see the Bin Yuan February monthly for the full review
 
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